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Friday, November 7, 2025 — Friday Recap: Crude's Structural Breakdown, Natural Gas's Demand Strength.

This week, we witnessed a complete narrative arc in energy markets, from strategic positioning to inventory reality. Today, we synthesize the entire week and outline the disciplined weekend playbook to reinforce conviction in long-term positioning.

Monday set the strategic framework. OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for Q1 2026, positioning it as a tactical response to oversupply concerns. WTI crude was trading at $61.20 to $61.30, and natural gas was at $4.10, up 22% for the month. The narrative was one of strategic positioning—OPEC+ buying time, but crude facing bearish headwinds from weak global demand and record U.S. production.

Tuesday dissected the technicals. WTI formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, testing critical support at $60.50. Natural gas consolidated above $4.00 with overbought conditions, signaling potential pullback risk. The technical picture was clear: crude was vulnerable to a breakdown below $60, while natural gas needed a pullback to $3.90-$4.00 to gather bullish energy for the next leg higher.

Wednesday zoomed out to the macro context. The International Monetary Fund projected global growth at 3.2% for 2025, while the World Bank was more pessimistic at 2.3%. China's manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.0, marking the weakest reading in six months. Central banks were cautiously easing, with the Federal Reserve at 3.75%-4.00% and the ECB holding steady. The critical insight was the divergence in energy demand: oil demand was plateauing amid weak global growth, while electricity demand was surging at 3.3% driven by data centers and electrification.

Thursday delivered the inventory reality. The EIA reported a surprise 5.2 million barrel crude build, far exceeding expectations. WTI broke below the critical $60 support level, settling at $59.60. This was not a technical bounce—it was a structural confirmation of oversupply, weak global demand, and the insufficiency of OPEC+'s production pause. Natural gas storage remained comfortable at 3,882 Bcf, 5% above the five-year average, but the market's bullish momentum remained intact, driven by demand fundamentals: winter heating demand, data center expansion, and robust LNG exports.

The week's synthesis is clear. Crude oil is facing a perfect storm: record U.S. production at 13.65 million barrels per day, weak global demand from China's contraction and slowing growth, and a projected Q4 2025-2026 surplus. The $60 breakdown is structural, not temporary. Natural gas, by contrast, is thriving on demand fundamentals that transcend supply comfort. The divergence between crude's supply glut and natural gas's demand strength is now the defining theme of energy markets.

For the weekend playbook, the critical support zones are clear. For crude, watch for consolidation around $59.50 to $60, with the next major support at $58. A break below $58 could target $55. For natural gas, the critical support zone is $3.90 to $4.00, with major support at $3.60. A pullback to $3.90-$4.00 would offer a tactical long entry for renewed conviction in the long-term bullish thesis.

The levels that matter: crude support at $59.50, $58, and $55; natural gas resistance at $4.40 and $4.50, support at $3.90 and $3.60. Use the weekend to reinforce conviction in the structural divergence between crude's oversupply and natural gas's demand strength. This divergence will persist through year-end and into 2026.

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