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Friday, October 31, 2025 — Friday Recap.

This week, we built a comprehensive narrative across geopolitics, technicals, macro policy, and inventory fundamentals. Today, we synthesize these threads and examine what Friday's price action reveals about the path forward.

The week began with crude oil riding a geopolitical jolt from new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which drove prices higher on supply disruption fears. Tuesday's technical analysis showed crude consolidating those gains around $61.75 for WTI, while Wednesday's macro context highlighted the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the challenging global economic backdrop. Thursday's EIA inventory report confirmed persistent crude draws, with a 6.9 million barrel decline bringing U.S. stocks to 416 million barrels, approximately 6% below the five-year average. For natural gas, Thursday's EIA report showed a 74 Bcf injection, in line with consensus, bringing total storage to 3,882 Bcf, still 4.6% above the five-year average.

But Friday's price action tells the real story. WTI crude oil fell to $60.15 per barrel, down 0.69% on the day, erasing the week's geopolitical gains. The market is now confronting the fundamental reality of oversupply, with rising global output, weak demand signals from China where manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month, and OPEC+ planning production increases of approximately 137,000 barrels per day for December. A stronger U.S. dollar and the Fed's hawkish tone are also weighing on prices. Crude is on track for its third consecutive monthly decline, and the technical picture has shifted bearish, with WTI now below key support levels.

Natural gas, in stark contrast, surged to $4.06 per MMBtu on Friday, up 2.66% on the day and 16.83% over the past month. Despite storage levels remaining 4.6% above the five-year average, the market has validated its breakout above $3.00, driven by colder weather forecasts across the central and eastern U.S. and record LNG export flows in October. The structural demand story for natural gas is proving more powerful than the supply cushion, confirming the bullish momentum we've tracked all week.

As we head into November, the strategic positioning is clear. For crude oil, the bearish sentiment driven by oversupply and weak demand has reasserted itself. Watch for WTI to test the $58-$60 range, with further downside risk if OPEC+ follows through on production increases. For natural gas, the breakout is confirmed. The $4.00 level is now in play, with upside potential toward $4.10 as winter demand accelerates.

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