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Thursday, November 6, 2025 — EIA Inventory Reports: Crude Breaks $60, Gas Storage Comfortable.

Today, we dissect the latest EIA inventory data, which delivered a critical market signal: crude oil's breakdown below the $60 support level and natural gas storage's continued comfort.

The headline from this morning's EIA report was a surprise crude oil build. Commercial crude oil stocks rose by 5.202 million barrels for the week ending November 5th, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.8 million barrels. This was the largest build since July. Total commercial crude oil stocks reached 421.2 million barrels, which is about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. The surprise build immediately triggered a sharp selloff in WTI crude oil, which fell below the critical $60 per barrel support level we've been monitoring all week. WTI settled at $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59%, reaching a one-week low. Brent crude also declined, falling to $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43%.

The crude build reflects a confluence of bearish factors. U.S. crude production remained near record levels at 13.65 million barrels per day, while net crude imports increased to 1.56 million bpd. Refinery capacity utilization fell to 86% from 86.6% the previous week, indicating softer demand for crude inputs. Gasoline stocks fell 4.7 million barrels to 206 million barrels, reaching their lowest level in three years, but this decline was offset by the crude build. The broader picture is clear: crude supply is ample, global demand is weak, and OPEC+'s production pause is insufficient to prevent inventory accumulation. The market is now pricing in the reality of a significant Q4 2025 and 2026 surplus, as we outlined in yesterday's macro context briefing.

Natural gas storage, by contrast, presents a different picture. As of October 24, working gas in storage totaled 3,882 Bcf, representing a net injection of 74 Bcf for the week. Stocks are 171 Bcf, or 5%, above the five-year average. Injections into storage are running 13% higher than the five-year average so far in the refill season. This comfortable storage position might suggest downside risk for natural gas prices, but the market's bullish momentum is driven by demand fundamentals, not supply tightness. Winter heating demand, data center expansion, and robust LNG exports are the key drivers. Storage comfort simply means the market has the supply to meet this demand without stress.

The levels that matter for crude: support at $59.50 and $58, with a potential test of $55 if the bearish momentum accelerates. For natural gas: resistance at $4.40 and $4.50, with support at $3.90 and $3.60. The divergence between crude's supply glut and natural gas's demand strength is now the defining theme of energy markets heading into year-end.

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