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Monday, November 3, 2025 — Strategic Positioning: OPEC+ Pivots, Gas Momentum Sustained.

As November begins, energy markets are navigating a critical strategic shift from OPEC+ and the sustained momentum in natural gas. Today, we frame the key levels, catalysts, and risks that will define the week ahead.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ made a significant strategic announcement. While the coalition will continue its gradual production increases of 137,000 barrels per day through December 2025, it has decided to pause all output increases for January, February, and March 2026. This decision, citing expected seasonal demand weakness in the first quarter, is a tactical response to mounting concerns about a supply surplus. The International Energy Agency projects a massive 3.7 million barrel per day oil surplus in Q4 2025, and global crude inventories hit a four-year high in August. OPEC+'s production freeze is designed to prevent a price collapse below the critical $60 level for WTI, which has been acting as a psychological floor.

Today, WTI crude is trading around $61.20 to $61.30 per barrel, recovering modestly on the OPEC+ news. However, the fundamental bearish reality remains intact. Non-OPEC production, led by U.S. shale, continues to surge, with the U.S. maintaining record output above 13.6 million barrels per day. Chinese manufacturing activity has contracted for the seventh consecutive month, signaling persistent demand weakness. The EIA forecasts that inventory builds will average 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and remain elevated through 2026, exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. The strategic positioning for crude is clear: OPEC+'s production pause buys time, but the path of least resistance remains lower, with key support at $60 and downside risk toward $58 if fundamentals deteriorate further.

Natural gas, in stark contrast, continues to demonstrate structural strength. Today, prices are holding at $4.10 per MMBtu, up 22.22% over the past month and 47.54% year-over-year. Forecasts project natural gas to reach $4.28 by the end of Q4 2025 and $5.14 in 12 months, driven by robust LNG exports and the expectation of a colder winter compared to last year. Despite comfortable storage levels, the market has validated its breakout above $4.00, confirming that demand-side drivers are overpowering the supply cushion. The momentum is bullish, with upside targets at $4.28 and potential for further gains as winter demand accelerates.

This week, watch for OPEC+ commentary on the production freeze, U.S. inventory data on Wednesday, and any shifts in weather forecasts that could impact natural gas demand.

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