---client: ea_forumproject_id: curatedfeed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__forecastingnarrator: pwqa: mdsnarrator_time: 1h20mqa_time: 0h15m---This is a linkpost for https://epochai.org/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelinesWe summarize and compare several models and forecasts predicting when transformative AI will be developed.HighlightsThe review includes quantitative models, including both outside and inside view, and judgment-based forecasts by (teams of) experts.While we do not necessarily endorse their conclusions, the inside-view model the Epoch team found most compelling is Ajeya Cotra’s “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”, the best-rated outside-view model was Tom Davidson’s “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”, and the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.The inside-view models we reviewed predicted shorter timelines (e.g. bioanchors has a median of 2052) while the outside-view models predicted longer timelines (e.g. semi-informative priors has a median over 2100). The judgment-based forecasts are skewed towards agreement with the inside-view models, and are often more aggressive (e.g. Samotsvety assigned a median of 2043).Original article:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4Ckc2zNrAKQwnAyA2/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligenceNarrated for the Effective Altruism Forum by TYPE III AUDIO.Share feedback on this narration.

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