Listen "EP13: Expiry Day, Bullish Bias & Long Calendars in Focus | July 24 (Thursday)"
Episode Synopsis
Welcome to EP13 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.It’s expiry day, and the setup is primed for an upward bias. Gift Nifty is trading 50 points higher at 25,297, while vols remain extremely compressed. TK breaks down the global cues, client vs pro positioning, sector momentum, and expiry trades.🌏Global SnapshotNasdaq: +127 pts — new highs led by AlphabetS&P 500: 6,358 (+49 pts)Dow Futures: Flat to negativeAsia: Rally continues as US–India trade tensions easeCrude: Subdued at $68.67Gold: Cooled off to $33.85/ozDollar Index: 97.19USDINR: 86.41 — INR weakness continues📊FII/DII ActivityFIIs: Sold ₹4,209 CrDIIs: Bought ₹4,358 CrMTD Net:FIIs: -₹26,395 CrDIIs: +₹35,070 Cr💼Earnings TodayBajaj Finance, Nestle, Canara Bank, REC, Adani Transmission, Apollo, ACC, Emphasis, and more — watch for stock-specific movesClient vs Pro PositioningClients:Long Futures: 1.01 lakhCall Shorts: 2.19 lakhPut Shorts: 2.84 lakhNet Option Bias: +65,000 (mildly bullish)Shift from put to call shorts could be a trapPros:Call Longs: 1.97 lakhPut Longs: 1.34 lakhNet Option Bias: +62,000Futures: +10,000 — bullish confirmation📈Sector Signals (TK Screener)Strong Momentum:FinanceBank NiftyInfraMetalsMidcapsAutoCPSCCapital MarketsNeutral:FMCGRealtyITNo strong sell signals today.Volatility & Expiry TradesSpot: 25,209Expected Open: 25,270–25,280IVs (24 Jul): ~8%31 Jul IV: 8.44%August IV: ~10%ATM Straddle (25,250): ~₹100Could open at ₹85–90Collapse to ₹50 likely by midday📌 Trade Ideas:Long Calendar: Buy 31 Jul / Sell 24 JulButterfly for expiry: Pin around 25,350–25,400🪙Commodities & CryptoGold (MCX): ₹1,528,000 — strongSilver: ₹1,16,533 — strongCrude: ₹5,630 — weakNatGas: ₹279 — sellBTC: ₹11,80,000 — neutral“Pros and clients are both long — expiry is set for a bullish tilt. Watch 25,170–25,180 as buy zones on dips. Calendars make sense with IVs so low. Use butterflies for expiry pinning if trend holds.”📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.
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