Listen "EP08: Expiry Day Playbook: Low IV, Range Compression & Calendar Setups | July 17 "
Episode Synopsis
Welcome to EP08 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins. It’s expiry day and volatility is crushed — here’s your quick market pulse, sector plays, and trade ideas.🔥Top Highlights:📉 Market Snapshot:Gift Nifty trades at 25,273, up 42 points at open.We’ve been range-bound around 25,200–25,250 for 5 straight sessions — and it’s worked well for volatility sellers.🌍 Global & Asian Markets:Trump drama: Powell sacking threat made → later withdrawn.US Markets: Dow +200 pts, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +52 pts.Europe: Mixed to negative — FTSE, CAC, DAX down 0.13% to 0.57%.Asia: Mixed cues – Nikkei ↓, Hang Seng ↑, Taiwan ↓, Shanghai ↓, Jakarta ↑.💹 FII/DII Flows:FIIs sold ₹1,858 Cr, continuing heavy exit.DIIs bought ₹1,223 Cr.MTD: FIIs net sellers ₹13,636 Cr, DIIs net buyers ₹16,969 Cr.📊 Client & Pro Positioning:Clients:Net Call Short: 74,409Net Put Short: 3,30,256 → bullish biasPros: Net long on options → playing volatility expansion⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:17 July Expiry IV: ~8%Monthlies (July 31): ~9.5%25200 ATM Straddle: ₹98 → 1 SD range = 25100–25300TK Algo Signal: Buy on NiftyCalendar Spread: 25200 strike trading at ₹180 – still the trade of choice.📈 Tanmay’s Trade View:Expect expiry around 25,250–25,350.Use calendars for carry into next week.For expiry: deploy Iron Fly @ 25,250 with 150-point wings.Ideal dip buy zone: 25,060–25,070 for bounce to 25,250+🏭 Sector Trends (TK Algo):Strength: Auto, FMCG, Realty, Capital MarketsWeakness: CPSC, Metals, FinancialsNifty/Bank Nifty/Sensex: Neutral🛢️ Commodities & FX:Gold: $3,339/oz | MCX: ₹97,486 – strongSilver (MCX): ₹1,12,190 – strongNatGas: ₹304 – buy zoneCrude: ₹5,696 – now in shorting territoryUSDINR: 85.80 (support), 86.10 (resistance) | DXY: 98.49“Volatility is dead. Don’t chase the open — expiry trades will work best if you wait for dips or range compressions. Stick to calendar spreads, use Iron Flies, and lean on sector momentum for the edge.”👍 Enjoyed the episode? Follow, Share, and rate us on your favorite platform.🎧 Join again tomorrow for Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute market edge before the chaos begins.
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