Listen "EP06: FII Selling Returns, Volatility Low – Calendar Spread in Play | July 14 (Monday)"
Episode Synopsis
Welcome to Episode 6 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay Kurtkoti Founder QCAlpha breaks down the global setup, sector flows, volatility signals, and trade ideas for the day.🔥Top Highlights:📉 Market Overview:SGX Nifty at 25,188, flat to mildly negative.Friday close: Nifty dipped below key support at 25,200, entering a volatile but low IV zone.Current mean reversion level: 25,300; buy near 25,000 levels.🌍 Global Cues:US Markets down: Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.33%Weakness driven by Meta news and Trump tariff escalation.Asian markets mixed: Nikkei & Taiwan down, Shanghai, Hangseng, Jakarta up.🛢️ Commodities:Brent Crude: $70.42Gold: $3,356/ozSilver (MCX): ₹111506 – showing strengthGold MCX: ₹97,373, watch for breakout above ₹97,600Crude & NatGas: NeutralBitcoin: Trading strong around ₹1.18L📊 FII/DII Data:FIIs sold ₹5,154 Cr, continuing their exit.DIIs bought ₹3,558 Cr; net DII inflows ~₹12,000 Cr MTD.FIIs remain net sellers for July: ₹10,284 Cr.📉 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):Broad weakness across sectors:Capital markets, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, Auto, Infra → all negative.Nifty TK Algo Signal:Slow Signal Sell: 25,438Fast Signal Sell: 25,363⚙️ Options & Volatility:IV (17 July): 9.17 (very low)IV (24 July): 10.0Suggests short-term suppression, but vol bounce likely next week.Calendar Spread Idea:Buy 24 July straddle, Sell 17 July straddleTake advantage of IV differential (long calendar)📌 ATM Straddle (17 July @ 25,200):Trading at ₹244 → 1 SD range ≈ 25,000–25,300🎯 Take:Low volatility = great time to initiate calendarsMarket remains in mean-reverting mode between 25,000–25,300Short-vol trades early in the week, prepare for vol expansion later👍 Like what you hear? Follow, Share, and Rate the podcast.🎧 Join us tomorrow again for your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins.
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