Today we run through the important US July CPI data release today, the first data point that is arguably fully showing Trump tariff impacts. We break down the possible reaction functions across markets, including gold, rates, and currencies as we await evidence that stagflation remains the most likely scenario from here. We also revisit the lithium and rare earths discussion after the pop in lithium stocks yesterday and point out significant market divergences in the US equity market, noting that some previous similar episodes have marked major pivot points in the market action. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
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