In this episode of Durable Value, we talk about the science of failure—why even great companies and properties can drift off course, and how to recognize and prevent the subtle missteps that lead to bigger problems. We discuss the difference between luck and skill in investing, the dangers of narrative reinforcement, and practical strategies for building resilience in your business. Whether you're a real estate investor, entrepreneur, or leader, you'll find actionable insights to help you avoid common pitfalls and turn failures into stepping stones for long-term success.Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction: The Science of Failure01:26 - Luck vs. Skill in Investing02:20 - Information Machines & Signal vs. Reality02:57 - Luck as Skill: The Genius-Idiot Cycle03:15 - Real Estate Market Cycles as Levelers03:38 - Execution Engine: Buying the Right Assets06:20 - Navigating Seller and Broker Dynamics07:03 - Macro Understanding from Multi-Market Experience09:05 - Short-Term vs. Long-Term Thinking10:33 - Capital Pressure and Market Cycles11:25 - Institutional Capital and Volatility12:07 - Raising Capital in Down Markets13:31 - John Boyd’s OODA Loop: Orienting to Reality13:50 - Failure as a Path to Success14:32 - Red Teaming & Pre-Mortems15:12 - Building a Culture of Openness15:39 - Rebuilding Systems for the Long Term16:02 - From IRR to NOI: Adapting to a New Decade16:22 - Building for Stability and Optionality19:58 - Closing

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