Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan explores the significant impact of unpredictable, rare events—Black Swan events—that have massive consequences. The book critiques our tendency to create narratives that simplify complex realities, a narrative fallacy, and our confirmation bias, which prevents us from recognizing Black Swan possibilities. Taleb introduces the concepts of Mediocristan and Extremistan to illustrate the different scales of randomness, arguing that we often misapply tools designed for predictable situations. He proposes antifragility as a way to not just survive but thrive in uncertainty, suggesting practical strategies like a barbell strategy to manage risk and embrace the unknown.

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