EP 24 : 24,700 Hurdle, Low IV — Short Calendar + Long Straddle Setup | 14 Aug (Thu)

14/08/2025 6 min Temporada 1 Episodio 24
EP 24 : 24,700 Hurdle, Low IV — Short Calendar + Long Straddle Setup | 14 Aug (Thu)

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Episode Synopsis

GIFT Nifty is trading flat near 24,650 this morning as markets gear up for expiry. Global cues are mixed — US markets closed positive with Nasdaq at 21,713 (+137 pts) and S&P 500 at 6,466 (+20 pts), while Asian markets are split: Jakarta and Shanghai in the green, Nikkei higher by 267 pts (+0.66%), but Hang Seng and Taiwan slightly weaker.Institutional Flow (13th Aug):FIIs: Sold ₹3,644 Cr (MTD: -₹22,264 Cr)DIIs: Bought ₹5,623 Cr (MTD: +₹51,899 Cr)Earnings Watch – Final Day of the Season:Over 530 results expected today, including:IOC, Ashok Leyland, Vodafone Idea, Glenmark Pharma, Inox Wind, Hindustan Copper.Derivatives Positioning:Clients: Net long 4.15 lakh shares in options50,000 long calls3.65 lakh short putsFutures: Long 1.26 lakhPros: Net short 1.41 lakh sharesCalls: FlatPuts: Long 1.41 lakhKey Expiry Levels:24,700 is the big hurdle — heavy build-up at this strike.24650 straddle: ₹11324650 calendar: ₹175Strategy: Short calendar + long today’s straddle / sell next week’s straddle (long gamma bias).Sectors on TK Screener:Strength: Pharma (leading), Auto, Capital Markets, Metals, CPSC, Smallcap.Weakness: Realty, select Banking & Financial stocks.Volatility & Ranges:14th Aug IVs: 9.4Implied move:Downside: 24,520 (support), watch 24,500 as SL.Upside: 24,770, breakout possible above 24,700.Commodities:Gold (MCX): ₹1,40,XXX — strong.Silver: ₹1,12,XXX — firm.Crude: Soft at ₹5,696 — sell bias.NatGas: Buy zone around ₹272.FX & Crypto:USDINR at 87.45 — key resistance 87.50.Dollar Index near 98.Bitcoin steady at ₹1,11,XXX.TK Algo Signals:Both slow and fast modes are in buy territory — bias remains positive if 24,520 holds. Expect early volatility, possible breakout in second half.Key Watch:Above 24,700 → Rally toward 25,000 mean.Below 24,550 → Risk of test to 24,520.Avoid heavy shorts while IVs remain low; long gamma trades still preferred.🎙 Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti — your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

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