An edited excerpt from this interview with Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext: I think the 50 percentage point rises are probably over for now [in Australia]. But you’ve got two lags going on. Firstly, it takes several months for a rise to feed through to your mortgage. So given they only started in May, the full impact of rate rises won't be felt until the end of the year around Christmas. The RBA will probably do two more 25s this year. They might put a third in up to 3.1%, but let's call it 3%. I think then they'll sit back and see what impact it's had. Secondly, on the goods inflation side there's a huge amount of evidence that we've seen the peak in the US. There's every chance we'll get some negative CPI US prints. This doesn't mean inflation's over. It doesn't mean they're going to cut rates, but that certainly takes the pressure off for hiking rates. * Tim Hext is head of government bond strategies in Pendal's Income and Fixed Interest team. Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies at https://pend.al/fixedinterest. Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at www.pendalgroup.com.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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