📌 Week Ahead Market & News Briefing – Short NotesFed Decision (Main Event):25bp cut to 4.00–4.25% expected.Dot plot & Chair Powell’s tone key for FX.Fewer cuts than priced = USD bullish; deeper easing = USD bearish.USD/JPY Focus:BoJ expected to hold at 0.50% (95% probability).Fed outcome likely drives pair’s direction this week.Bank of Canada:CPI Tuesday, rate decision Wednesday – 90% chance of cut.Risk skewed toward CAD short-covering if no cut.Bank of England:Jobs, CPI, then BOE Thursday.Rate hold at 4% likely (7–2 vote).QT slowdown expected (£70–75bn); a bigger cut to £50bn could lift GBP.Gold:Key resistance: 3,660.Hawkish Fed → pullback toward 3,500; dovish Fed → breakout toward 3,700–3,800.US Labor Data:Jobless claims Thursday crucial for confirming labor weakness.Elevated claims = dovish USD; sharp drop = USD support.Macro Theme:G7 policy divergence driving FX.Watch Fed guidance, BoC easing path, BOE QT calibration.

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