Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (18 Sept 2025)Theme: Post-Fed digestion, dollar steadies, gold consolidates, trade negotiations signal selective thaw, geopolitical talks intensify.FX & Central BanksFed: Cut rates 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, framed as a “risk-management” move. Dot plot shows two additional cuts in 2025 for nine officials, but six see no further easing. Powell emphasized no rush to neutral and a meeting-by-meeting approach.Market Reaction: DXY sold off initially but rebounded during Powell’s press conference; December cut still fully priced.Today’s Focus: BoE, Norges Bank, SARB decisions and US jobless claims could recalibrate policy divergence trades.CommoditiesGold: Briefly spiked on dovish statement, but faded as Powell pushed back on aggressive easing bets. Now consolidating just off highs.Oil: Choppy session leaves crude subdued; headlines on Russian energy infrastructure keep a risk premium under prices.Copper: Sideways trade as markets weigh softer macro data against supply themes.Trade & TariffsBeijing reportedly dropped Google antitrust probe during trade talks, signaling goodwill.US lawmakers remain concerned about the structure of the TikTok deal, adding political risk to finalization.Brazilian President Lula called US tariffs “eminently political” and warned of higher prices for US consumers, while signing tax exemptions for data-center equipment.US administration reportedly considering using tariff revenue to fund farmer support programs, linking trade and fiscal policy.GeopoliticsMiddle East: Israeli and US envoys in London exploring comprehensive hostage-release and ceasefire deal; Qatar also engaged. Syrian president said security talks with Israel could yield results within days, though normalization is not yet on the table.Russia–Ukraine: Zelensky reported continued Russian strikes on energy and rail assets. EU expected to intensify sanctions discussions.Europe: UK–EU defence fund talks stalled over cost-sharing, delaying potential UK participation.Key WatchpointsFX response to Fed outcome as markets transition to BoE, Norges Bank, SARB.Gold tone into US data and European CB speakers (Lagarde, Nagel, Schnabel).Any breakthrough in London talks on Gaza or new EU sanctions language on Russia.Developments in US–China trade talks and progress toward Trump’s potential Beijing visit.

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