Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (16 Sept 2025)Theme: USD under pressure ahead of data and FOMC; gold at record highs; crude softer on delayed EU sanctions; Gaza ground incursion begins; US–China trade talks still in play.FX & Central BanksDXY weaker near 96.9 as traders await August US retail sales and industrial production.Fed update: Court allows Governor Cook to attend FOMC; Senate narrowly confirms Miran (48–47) to the Fed board.EUR/USD above 1.18 after improved German ZEW sentiment; ECB repeats rates are “in a good place.”USD/JPY lower as yen benefits from Koizumi entering LDP leadership race, seen as less dovish than rival Takaichi.GBP steady near 1.36 after in-line UK jobs data; markets still price 97% chance BoE holds this week.AUD/NZD rangebound after balanced RBA commentary.PBoC sets stronger yuan fix at 7.1027 vs 7.1159 expected, continuing support for CNY.CommoditiesCrude slips after EU 19th sanctions package against Russia delayed; WTI near $63, Brent near $67.Gold surges to fresh ATH, trading near $3,700/oz on weaker USD and geopolitical tension. Commerzbank raises year-end forecast to $3,600.Copper slightly softer but holds above $10,000/t.Thailand mulls gold-trade tax to stabilize THB; BoT discussing dollar-based gold settlement.Ukraine strikes Russia’s Saratov refinery (140k bpd), keeping energy infrastructure risk elevated.Trade & TariffsTrump says TikTok stake decision pending, will discuss “significant agreement” with Xi this week.US opens Section 232 inclusion window for derivative steel/aluminium products.UK–US metals tariff talks stalled, no Reeves–Bessent meeting planned.China rolls out fresh consumption stimulus – credit support, extended hours for tourist/cultural venues, pilot programs in telecoms, medicine, education.GeopoliticsMiddle East:Israel launches ground incursion into Gaza City, described as phased and gradual.Trump warns Hamas not to use hostages as shields, demands release.US SecState Rubio heads to Qatar to push Gaza mediation; US–Qatar defence agreement near finalisation.Europe / Russia–Ukraine:Poland boosts cybersecurity budget to EUR 1bn after Russian sabotage attempts.RAF Typhoons to fly missions over Poland under NATO’s eastern sentry mission.Japan pledges to coordinate with G7 on raising pressure on Russia.Russia confirms drone strikes on Ukrainian gas station, continuing infrastructure attacks.Key WatchpointsUS Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Canadian CPI (today).Start of FOMC meeting — key driver for USD and gold.Trump–Xi call later this week on TikTok and trade.Ongoing Gaza operation and NATO activity in Eastern Europe.

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