Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (16 Sept 2025)Theme: USD softer into FOMC; crude and gold supported; US–China trade talks continue; Middle East and Eastern Europe remain flashpoints.FX & Central BanksUSD extends yesterday’s downside; DXY under pressure ahead of US Retail Sales and start of FOMC two-day meeting.Fed Gov. Cook confirmed to attend FOMC after appeals court ruling; Senate narrowly confirms nominee Miran (48–47).EUR holds mild gains as ECB officials say rates are “in a good place.”GBP steady near 1.36 with focus on UK jobs data and Trump’s UK visit.USD/JPY trades lower after US tariffs on Japan were cut; yen benefits.AUD/NZD rangebound; RBA notes inflation near target and risks balanced.PBoC sets USD/CNY midpoint at 7.1027 vs 7.1159 expected, another sign of currency support.CommoditiesCrude: Extends gains as Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil facilities; supply disruption fears support prices.Policy: California passes bill allowing thousands of new oil wells annually.Gold: Pauses after record high; market focused on FOMC outcome.Copper: Slight pullback after Monday’s rally, still tracking global risk tone.Trade & TariffsTrump undecided on TikTok stake, will speak with Xi this week on a “significant agreement.”US opens inclusion window for additional steel and aluminium products under Section 232 tariffs.US not expected to reduce tariffs on Scotch whisky ahead of Trump’s UK visit.GeopoliticsMiddle East:Gulf leaders call urgent defence council meeting in Doha after Israeli strike on Qatar; draft communiqué calls for reviewing ties with Israel.Trump warns Hamas against using hostages as human shields; urges immediate release.US, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, UK leaders coordinate response via phone call.US Secretary of State Rubio heads to Qatar seeking to salvage Gaza talks.Russia–Ukraine / Europe:UK RAF Typhoons to fly air defence missions over Poland under NATO’s eastern sentry mission.Poland neutralizes drone over government buildings, detains two Belarusians; boosts cyber budget to EUR 1bn after Russian sabotage attempts.Japan pledges to coordinate with G7 on measures to pressure Russia.Americas:US military conducts second strike against narcoterrorists in SOUTHCOM region.Venezuelan President Maduro calls recent US actions “aggression.”US reportedly looking to boost its strategic uranium stockpile.Key Watchpoints AheadUK jobs report, German ZEW survey, US retail sales and industrial production, Canadian CPI.Outcome of Trump–Xi discussion on TikTok and trade framework.FOMC policy decision and press conference tomorrow — main catalyst for FX and gold.

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