Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (15 Sept 2025)Intro: Today’s episode covers key developments across FX, commodities, global trade, and geopolitics that are shaping markets as we start the week.FX & Central BanksDollar steady into a big central-bank week, with the FOMC decision Wednesday the main event.ECB tone hawkish: Nagel and Kocher signal rate cuts are done or nearly done; euro marginally softer.BOE in focus: Rate hold at 4% widely expected; QT guidance may drive GBP reaction.JPY under mild pressure: LDP leadership race adds political risk premium; USD/JPY lower in thin Tokyo trade.CNY fix stronger than expected (7.1056) — supports Asian FX despite weak Chinese data.South Korea in FX swap talks with US to mitigate market volatility from US investment package.CommoditiesCrude oil firm: US threatens tougher sanctions on Russia and urges Europe to stop buying Russian oil.Iraq signs joint operations deal with TotalEnergies & QatarEnergy LNG.Egypt inks USD 121mn oil & gas exploration deals across key basins.Ecuador to end diesel subsidy, redirecting funds to social programs.Gold capped below 3,660 ahead of FOMC; dovish Fed could trigger breakout toward 3,700–3,800.Copper edges up but upside capped by weak Chinese activity data.Trade & TariffsUS–China talks resume in Madrid on TikTok and trade; limited progress on tariffs/fentanyl lowers odds of Beijing summit.China launches antidumping and anti-discrimination probes into US chip measures.US adds 32 entities (23 from China) to restricted trade list.TikTok deadline: Trump may extend operating deadline as negotiations continue.US–UK rushing deals on nuclear, AI data centres, whisky ahead of Trump state visit and signing a “ground-breaking” tech pact.GeopoliticsRussia–Ukraine:Trump signals willingness to impose sanctions once NATO unified; NATO to place 50–100% tariffs on China until war ends.G7 exploring use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine funding.Ukraine confirms thwarting Russian offensive in Sumy; strikes Kirishi oil refinery.Poland & Romania scramble jets after drone threats/incursions.Middle East:Israel’s strike in Qatar heightens tension; Hamas suspends hostage talks.Qatar vows to continue Gaza mediation with Egypt & US.Iran warns EU snapback sanctions could end nuclear monitoring cooperation.Indo-Pacific:US, Japan, Philippines complete maritime drills in South China Sea.China warns Philippines to stop “provocations” and continues naval patrols.South Korea’s foreign minister to visit China, Xi visit under discussion.Australia & China to hold high-level talks this week.Americas:Venezuela protests US Navy boarding of tuna vessel in its EEZ, calls it a security threat for Caribbean stability.Europe – Policy & PoliticsFitch downgrades France to A+ (Stable); Portugal & Spain upgraded.German CDU wins NRW elections; AfD triples support.UK policy: VAT cut on energy bills floated; >GBP 1.25bn in US FDI announced; >GBP 1.1bn joint maritime sector investment.China MacroAugust data weak: Industrial output 5.2% (vs 5.7%), retail sales 3.4% (vs 3.9%), unemployment up to 5.3%.Authorities pledge more support for consumption, jobs, and property sector.Wrap-Up: This week’s drivers: FOMC guidance for USD, BOE QT calibration for GBP, China data and policy pledges for Asia FX, and escalating trade/geopolitical tensions shaping crude and gold.

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