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Listen "Episode 13: Tariffs, Credit Quality & Fed Policy"
Episode Synopsis
In this episode, economist John Silvia explores the ripple effects of the latest tariff measures on U.S. credit markets, inflation expectations, and central bank policy. As firms navigate rising import costs and margin pressure, questions arise about the Fed’s response amid persistent inflation and political uncertainty.
John examines how small businesses, lenders, and banks may need to adjust credit frameworks and risk exposure. He also offers insights on real interest rate trends, the dollar’s vulnerability, and why a broad reshoring of manufacturing remains unlikely under a 10% tariff baseline.
Key topics include:
Why the inflationary impact of tariffs may be delayed
What Fed inaction means for real rates and long-term inflation
How tariffs reshape bank credit standards and loan risk
Where small businesses are most exposed
The overlooked risks to consumer credit—especially for younger borrowers
Why stagflation remains unlikely despite rising long-term yields
📩 Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com for more expert insights on markets and policy.
John examines how small businesses, lenders, and banks may need to adjust credit frameworks and risk exposure. He also offers insights on real interest rate trends, the dollar’s vulnerability, and why a broad reshoring of manufacturing remains unlikely under a 10% tariff baseline.
Key topics include:
Why the inflationary impact of tariffs may be delayed
What Fed inaction means for real rates and long-term inflation
How tariffs reshape bank credit standards and loan risk
Where small businesses are most exposed
The overlooked risks to consumer credit—especially for younger borrowers
Why stagflation remains unlikely despite rising long-term yields
📩 Subscribe to the weekly newsletter at johnesilvia.com for more expert insights on markets and policy.
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