The global landscape for 2025-2030 is characterized by unprecedented interconnected vulnerabilities and a fundamental shift in the geopolitical and economic order. While traditional safeguards exist, their effectiveness is significantly diminished by new, high-velocity contagion channels and a "Policy Checkmate" that paralyzes central bank responses. The probability of a 1929-scale financial contagion within this timeframe is estimated to be 55-65%, moving from a "tail risk" to a "base case" scenario. This shift is driven by the convergence of extreme financial fragilities, novel technological risks, and a fragmented geopolitical environment.

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