It's Time to Rethink How You Analyze Deals with Mac Shelton, , Ep. 763

07/11/2025 37 min
It's Time to Rethink How You Analyze Deals with Mac Shelton, , Ep. 763

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Episode Synopsis

Mac Shelton is the co-founder of Sweetbay Capital, a real estate private equity firm focused on value-add multifamily investments in Virginia and the Carolinas. With a background in private equity and mezzanine lending, Mac blends institutional financial experience with a data-driven approach to real estate. Since 2021, he and his team have built a portfolio of over 340 units, concentrating on under-the-radar markets like Roanoke, VA, where rent growth consistently outpaces new supply.     Make sure to download our free guide, 7 Questions Every Passive Investor Should Ask, here.     Key Takeaways Rent growth—not population growth—is the key driver of returns Markets with less outside capital often outperform due to better entry pricing and lower volatility Renovation premiums are often overestimated—test before scaling your plan Conservative exit underwriting should account for the next buyer's view, not just your own Transparency with investors builds trust and fuels long-term partnerships     Topics Why Sweetbay Focuses on Smaller Markets Smaller markets like Roanoke and Columbia are producing higher rent growth with lower acquisition costs Mac compares tertiary markets to places like Raleigh in the early 2000s—under the radar but primed for stable returns Oversupply in "hot" metros like Raleigh and Charlotte is driving rents down, while less popular markets remain steady Data Over Hype: What Drives Rent Growth Rent growth is more important than population growth and is driven by renter population relative to new supply Mac shares an analysis comparing Roanoke to Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greenville—showing similar or better rent performance with lower price per door Why Lease Trade-Outs and Renewals Matter Lease trade-outs measure organic rent growth, but renewals give even clearer insight into demand Renewals at 3–4% growth without renovations are often a better gauge than turnover metrics Exit Assumptions: Thinking Like the Next Buyer Every acquisition includes a re-underwrite from the future buyer's perspective Mac shares how he checks cap rate assumptions against current comps and validates price-per-door benchmarks Transitioning from Private Equity to Real Estate Mac started his career in private equity and gradually began acquiring rentals with his bonus income His first syndication scaled a student rental model he'd already executed personally Investor Communication and Building Trust Sweetbay Capital emphasizes detailed offering memorandums with full fee transparency and CapEx justifications Quarterly reports compare actuals vs original projections—no adjusted budgets or post-hoc explanations Advice for New Syndicators Don't start syndicating without doing your own deals first—prove the model with your money Sweetbay's first deal had no promote, just a 3% acquisition fee, to reduce friction and earn investor trust The best way to grow capital is to return it and reinvest with a strong track record     📢 Announcement: Learn about our Apartment Investing Mastermind here.     Round of Insights Failure that set Mac up for success: Skipping early rent tests on a renovation project led to budget overruns—he learned the value of testing rent potential before scaling upgrades. Digital or mobile resource: LandGlide – a $100/year app that offers a consolidated GIS view to quickly check property ownership and transaction history. Book recommendation: Best Ever Apartment Syndication Book by Joe Fairless – a foundational guide Mac used to build the blueprint for Sweetbay. Daily habit: Morning exercise—whether running, walking the dog, or hitting the gym—centers Mac and sets the tone for a productive day. #1 insight for finding great markets: Ignore hype. Focus on fundamentals like rent-to-price ratios, supply dynamics, and how picked-over the market really is. Favorite restaurant in Raleigh, NC: For casual: MoJoe's Burger Joint. For upscale: Stanbury.     Next Steps Connect with Mac on LinkedIn Visit sweetbay-capital.com to learn more about their deals and investor resources     Thank you for joining us for another great episode! If you're enjoying the show, please LEAVE A RATING OR REVIEW, and be sure to hit that subscribe button so you don't miss an episode.

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