ZARZA We are Zarza, the prestigious firm behind major projects in information technology.
Listen "Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)"
Episode Synopsis
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.
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