NIO announced Q3 2025 earnings will be released on November 25, 2025, before US market open, with management hosting a conference call at 7 AM Eastern Time. All eyes are on whether NIO can achieve its first quarterly profit under non-GAAP standards in Q4 2025, as promised by CEO William Li.In Q3 2025, NIO delivered 87,071 vehicles within guidance of 87,000-91,000 units, representing 40.77 percent year-over-year growth and 20.84 percent quarter-over-quarter growth. Revenue guidance for Q3 was between RMB 21.81 billion and RMB 22.88 billion. For Q4, NIO aims to deliver 150,000 vehicles averaging 50,000 units per month. October deliveries hit 40,397 vehicles, a record but still short of the 50,000 monthly target needed.However, a massive battery supply crisis is threatening the entire Chinese automotive industry's Q4 delivery targets. XPeng CEO He Xiaopeng admitted he has been drinking with all battery manufacturer bosses over the past two weeks trying to secure supply. Reports indicate purchasing personnel from multiple Chinese automakers gathered at CATL headquarters attempting to secure battery production capacity by camping outside their sales offices.The battery shortage has three main causes: First, the purchase tax exemption for EVs ends December 31, 2025, causing consumers to rush purchases before year-end. From January to October 2025, China produced 13 million new energy vehicles, up 30 percent year-over-year, with October NEV sales exceeding 50 percent of total vehicle sales for the first time. Second, the energy storage market is booming and creating a reverse siphon effect. Q3 2025 energy storage lithium battery shipments hit 165 GWh, up 65 percent year-over-year, with full-year estimates at 580 GWh. Energy storage uses lithium iron phosphate batteries, the same chemistry used in mass-market EVs like NIO's Onvo and Firefly brands. Third, high-nickel ternary batteries for premium long-range vehicles face supply constraints due to raw material price volatility and long safety verification cycles.Meanwhile, NIO's battery swap stations in Sweden received approval from national grid operator Svenska kraftnät to participate in grid frequency regulation through the FCR-D system. This allows NIO's swap stations to function as energy storage facilities that help balance electricity demand during peak hours. Each station participating generates tens of thousands of euros in annual revenue. NIO currently operates 60 battery swap stations across Europe including 8 in Sweden, and 3,563 stations in China.This episode analyzes NIO's Q3 earnings preview, breaks down the brand mix showing Onvo outselling the main NIO brand for the first time with 37,656 units versus 36,928 units, examines how the battery supply crisis could impact NIO's ability to hit 150,000 Q4 deliveries needed for profitability, and explores how grid regulation revenue from battery swap stations could become a meaningful profit center.For NIO bulls and EV investors, the next six weeks are critical. Q3 earnings on November 25th will reveal margin trajectory, cash burn rates, and management's confidence in Q4 guidance. November and December delivery numbers will show whether NIO can navigate the battery shortage better than competitors.

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