PJM Is Dead

27/10/2025 34 min

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Episode Synopsis

PJM is dead. Long live PJM. If you already know about capacity markets, skip to the secret ending at 26:15. Otherwise, hope you enjoy the episode! And to future me listening back - remember VRR curve for demand.Timestamps:00:00-Intro02:00-Hello and Goodbye03:10-Fundamentals Start Here05:10-Restructuring the Market06:15-Basic NERC Reliability Standard07:15-Market Power and Price Caps10:00-Probability of Reliable Capacity (ICAP, ELCC, UCAP)12:00-Balancing payment with penalties13:00-Data Centers17:45-Renewables and Capacity18:00-Epilogue22:40-Complications in Responsibility24:00-PJM IS DEAD, Long Live PJM25:10-Capacity Markets are All Made Up26:15-Secret endingSuggested reading:Analysis of the 2026/2027 RPM Base Residual Auction (October, 2025)For reliability standards - look up EUE; LOLH; and LOLE all coming together for risk. Bidding rules - look up MOPR for old utilities that owned a lot of generation but had a ton of customer demand, so they underbid their capacity to distort the price and save money on consumer purchases. For accreditation - look up EFORd and ELCC will probably be changed in the future, so check out slice of day vs seasonal vs marginal and so on.