In this episode, we speak with forecasting researcher & data scientist at Amazon AWS, Ryan Kupyn, about his timelines for the arrival of AGI.Ryan was recently ranked the #1 forecaster in Astral Codex Ten's 2022 Prediction contest, beating out 500+ other forecasters and proving himself to be a world-class forecaster. He has also done work in ML & works as a forecaster for Amazon AWS.Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/== Show links ==-- About Ryan Kupyn --* Bio: Ryan is a forecasting researcher at Amazon. His main hobby outside of work is designing walking tours for different Los Angeles neighborhoods.* Ryan's meet-me email address: coffee AT ryankupyn DOT com  * Ryan: "I love to meet new people and talk about careers, ML, their best breakfast recipes and anything else."-- Further resources --* Superintelligence (Bostrom)* Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner)* Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani, Friedman)  * Ryan: "For general background on forecasting/statistics. This book is my go-to reference for understanding the math behind a lot of foundational statistical techniques."* Animal Spirits (Akerlof, Shiller)  * Ryan: "For understanding how forecasts can be driven by emotion. I find this a useful book for understanding how forecasts can be wrong, and a useful reminder to be mindful of my own forecasts."* Normal Accidents (Perrow)  * Ryan: "For understanding how humans interact with systems in ways that negate attempts by their creators to make them safer. I think there’s some utility in looking at previous accidents in complex systems to AGI, as presented in this book".

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