We speak with Katja Grace. Katja is the co-founder and lead researcher at AI Impacts, a research group trying to answer key questions about the future of AI — when certain capabilities will arise, what will AI look like, how it will all go for humanity.We talk to Katja about:* How AI Impacts latest rigorous survey of leading AI researchers shows they've dramatically reduced their timelines to when AI will successfully tackle all human tasks & occupations.* The survey's methodology and why we can be confident in its results* Responses to the survey* Katja's journey into the field of AI forecasting* Katja's thoughts about the future of AI, given her long tenure studying AI futures and its impactsHosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/== Show links ==-- Follow Katja --* Website: https://katjagrace.com/* Twitter: https://x.com/katjagrace-- Further resources --* The 2023 survey of AI researchers views: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai* AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/* AI Impacts' Substack: https://blog.aiimpacts.org/* Joe Carlsmith on Power Seeking AI: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353  * Abbreviated version: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/03/22/existential-risk-from-power-seeking-ai-shorter-version* Fragile World hypothesis by Nick Bostrom: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdfRecorded Feb 22, 2024

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