What in the Weather? podcast recording - February Iowa's wettest year and severe winter storm in 1993. Major winter storm brought heavy snow and freezing rain to Iowa in 1993, with totals ranging from 13-20 inches. Weather forecast and climate notables in Iowa. Dan Fillius asks Justin Glisan about the weather forecast for the coming week, with a focus on eastern Iowa. Glisan provides details on the expected precipitation, including a 10th of an inch across the state and a quarter to half an inch in eastern Iowa. In north central Iowa, the frost depth was shallow, around 5 inches, despite cold temperatures, indicating good infiltration. The National Weather Service measured unfrozen soil on top of the shallow frost depth in Johnston, just north of Des Moines. Glisan: Snowpack on ground reflects solar radiation, keeps temps cool. Winter weather patterns in Iowa. Dan Fillius and Justin Glisan discuss the coldest temperatures in Prem gar, Iowa, with negative 28 degrees on January 14th. Dan Fillius and Justin Glisan discuss the warmest winter on record in Iowa, with February being the fourth warmest, driest, and least snowy on record. Climate change and El Niño are contributing to the warming trend, with faster winter warming than summer warming and impacting jet stream patterns. Glisan and Dan Fillius discuss the possibility of a rapid shift from El Niño to La Niña in the upcoming summer months, with a 73% chance of ENSO neutral conditions and a 55% chance of La Niña in the July-September timeframe. Glisan provides an analogy to 2016, when a rapid shift from El Niño to lightning occurred, and suggests that near-normal to elevated precipitation potential may occur in California due to the shift. Randall Vos joins the show to discuss the impact of the unusual winter on fruit crops. Plant dormancy and chilling hours. Randall Vos explains the concept of chilling hours, which is how plants keep track of temperatures between 35-45°F to determine when to wake up from dormancy. Chilling hours are important for fruit varieties, with most requiring between 1000-1300 hours, depending on location. Randall Vos discusses the importance of choosing fruit tree cultivars adapted to the local climate, as warmer winters may require more chilling hours for proper growth. Randall Vos mentions that grape growers are looking for cultivars that break bud later to mitigate risk, with a 3-4 week difference in budbreak between grape varieties. Fruit tree cultivation and potential risks due to warm winter weather. Randall Vos expresses concern about early budbreak in blackberries due to warm temperatures, and mentions a new model (the Utah model) that predicts negative chilling hours when it gets hot. Randall Vos expresses low hopes for peach crop due to bud damage, while still having high hopes for sweet cherries. Randall expresses concern about the impact of warm winter weather on crops, particularly grapes which have an "insurance policy" to produce a secondary bud. Weather patterns and their impact on agriculture. Analogues to 2011-2012 drought and 2018-2019 wetness observed in Midwest weather history. Vegetable farmers dislike cold, wet springs the most. Weather forecasts and their impact on agriculture. Glisan and Dan discuss the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks, including the lack of a clear signal for precipitation or temperature across the upper Midwest, with a warm signal still present in the region. The March one-month outlook released about a week ago shows a bullseye of above average potential for precipitation west of Iowa and below average potential across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with Iowa in the middle. Some Amish farmers prioritized other pressing chores over ice harvesting during cold snap.

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