Ep 34 - Sequence Of Return Risk

29/09/2025 21 min

Listen "Ep 34 - Sequence Of Return Risk"

Episode Synopsis

In this episode, we tackle two of the most important retirement planning concepts: the Rule of 4% and the sequence of returns risk. We break down what the traditional 4% withdrawal rule means, why it’s outdated in today’s markets, and how following it blindly could actually hurt our retirement security.We explore how the order of market gains and losses can dramatically impact our savings once we begin withdrawing money, even if long-term averages look solid. Using examples from the S&P 500, we show how early negative years can devastate retirement portfolios, while exploring alternatives like index annuities to help reduce risk.Then we shift into a listener question about Roth 457 (deferred comp) plans: Can we withdraw funds early without penalties? We walk through the rules around contributions, growth, the five-year requirement, and how withdrawals are sequenced so we can make informed decisions.If we’ve ever wondered whether the Rule of 4% still works, how to protect our retirement from bad timing, or how Roth 457 withdrawals really function, this episode will give us clarity and confidence.00:00 – Intro01:00 – Why timing of returns matters in retirement02:39 – Example: S&P 500 returns 2000-201803:37 – Impact of order of returns (no withdrawals)04:50 – The 4% Rule explained & its origins05:31 – Why the 4% Rule no longer works reliably06:42 – Withdrawals + negative years = compounded losses07:56 – Using index annuities to reduce market risk09:49 – Pros & cons of protected strategies11:20 – TAP annuity: unique Washington benefit12:29 – Comparing TAP annuity vs portfolio withdrawals13:56 – Managing withdrawals: why strategy matters15:07 – Listener Q&A: Roth 457 withdrawal rules15:43 – Contributions vs growth: what we can withdraw16:32 – The 5-year and age 59½ rules explained17:15 – Withdrawal sequencing: contributions → conversions → growthLinks:⁠⁠Free Washington Retirement Planning Community⁠⁠⁠Plan 3 Investment Advice⁠⁠Schedule Meeting⁠More free resources at ⁠WATRSPERS.com⁠