Should You Raise Right Now? Should Govts Buy Stocks? Should NVIDIA Have Bought Nokia?

01/11/2025 48 min Temporada 1 Episodio 64
Should You Raise Right Now? Should Govts Buy Stocks? Should NVIDIA Have Bought Nokia?

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Episode Synopsis

The pod that unpacks the real news behind the clickbait affecting European venture.Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew02:41 — Bending Spoons deep dive Debt-fuelled roll-up, “Berkshire of consumer apps” analogy; Ukrainian peer Gentek noted; why more post-COVID roll-ups didn’t materialise.04:34 — US debt vs Europe risk Market’s view on capital allocation/dynamism; Decacorns vs unicorns; power-law returns reinforce Botha’s point.06:01 — “VC isn’t an asset class” debate Power-law concentration, PR angle, and incentives; media takeaways.07:31 — Euro VC vibes Lakestar & optics; ecosystem still 5× over decade despite headlines.08:30 — Feature: Should governments buy stocks? Khosla’s 10% stake in all public companies to offset AI/AGI shocks:Pros: Alignment with growth; potential UBI funding; sovereign-wealth-style upside.Cons: Partial nationalisation optics, execution complexity, tying state finances tighter to market swings.Middle paths: SWF/index recycling of taxes; robot/compute taxation; focus on efficient government vs expropriation.17:45 — Back-of-envelope math US equities ~$60T → 10% ≈ $6T; even 10% yield wouldn’t cover current US interest bill; cautions on bull-market assumptions.19:03 — UK Budget preview (26 Nov) Backdrop: softer productivity, fiscal squeeze.Likely: CGT/inheritance tweaks, mansion tax; maybe EMI/startup relief refinements.Founder advice: avoid doom loop—head down and build; some may move to US, less so Dubai.22:25 — Should founders raise now (pre-correction)?Consensus: If you can raise on decent terms, extend runway; always-be-raising (selectively).Don’t panic or over-dilute; keep shipping.If no PMF, fix product/positioning before chasing capital.29:02 — AI CornerNVIDIA at $5T: Hyperscalers’ capex still ramping; huge backlog; dominance but margins likely compress with competition/custom silicon.Nokia stake: Smart edge/5G–6G positioning; GPUs closer to towers for network optimisation & edge AI.OpenAI recap: For-profit structure finalised; Microsoft looks like the clearest public proxy (exclusivities, licenses).Meta’s mixed moment & layoffs framed more as performance-management cycles than AI doom.42:58 — Deals of the WeekSales Patriot (Warsaw): €4.2m to modernise defence procurement; aim to be system of record.Legora (legal AI, Stockholm): $150m at $1.8B, ~5 months after Series B.Robin AI: Sale process after $70m raised—cautionary tale on GTM/scale.Bending Spoons ↔ AOL/Vimeo: More roll-up momentum.Synthesia: $200m at $4B; reportedly turned down a $3B Adobe offer—go-for-growth stance.45:50 — UK quantum spotlight QFX round (Paul Graham involved); UK’s deep quantum bench (PsiQuantum/Quantinuum roots; Oxford Ionics ~$1B sale to IonQ). Challenge: scaling while keeping firms in the UK.

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