The Two-Tailed Risk Trap | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

15/11/2025 1h 9min Temporada 1 Episodio 26

Listen "The Two-Tailed Risk Trap | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next"

Episode Synopsis

In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the forces driving markets into November expiration. They cover the surge in volatility, Nvidia’s critical earnings event, the clustering of major catalysts, the behind-the-scenes hedging flows that shape price action, and why this expiration looks fundamentally different from the recent call-heavy cycles. The conversation blends macro uncertainty, options positioning, single-stock fragility, and the psychology of navigating markets that feel worse than they look.Topics Covered:• Why mega-cap AI names now dominate market behavior• Why volatility feels “back,” even with markets near all-time highs• The role of retail and institutional options activity in driving hedging flows• How delta, gamma, implied volatility, and time interact in maintaining hedges• Why November’s cluster of Nvidia earnings, VIX expiration, and OPEX is so important• How volatility can mean revert after options positions roll off• The October 10 volatility spasm and what it revealed• Resetting from call-heavy markets to put-skewed positioning• Macro uncertainty, rate-cut probabilities, and political risk• Credit default swap spikes and the broader AI narrative• The difficulty of timing bubbles and speculative extremes• Value investing pain points during high-volatility periods• Why fundamental sellers may finally be stepping in• What the options market implies heading into December’s massive expirationTimestamps:00:00 Mega-cap AI exposure and volatility setup01:00 Why markets feel worse than they look01:16 How hedging flows amplify market moves16:14 Nvidia’s earnings, VIX expiration, and the volatility cluster18:14 Why options volumes keep growing20:58 How small orders snowball into large market-maker hedges22:49 How OPEX resets positioning each month25:00 Negative gamma, volatility spikes, and event catalysts25:45 October’s volatility spasms explained27:34 Why November is the most put-skewed expiration in months32:00 Correlation breakdown and signs of fundamental selling33:44 Macro uncertainties, shutdown risk, rate cuts, and CDS spikes39:15 Market uncertainty, CPI gaps, and political anxiety41:00 AI cracks, CoreWeave trouble, and credit risk05:46 Bubble parallels and speculative excess07:00 The pain of value investing in runaway markets01:07:53 Wrap-up and closing comments

More episodes of the podcast The OPEX Effect