3. Supply vs. Demand: Economic Shocks, Entitlements, and the Invisible Population Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition)

Eberstadt explores the competing explanations for the ghost army, contrasting his supply-side argument (men holding back labor/unpreparedness) with demand-side views from critics Henry Olsen and Jared Bernstein. Olsen highlights the role of economic shocks and structural changes, like the 1970s stagflation and deindustrialization (the Rust Belt). The role of entitlements is significant, as over half of NILF men receive at least one benefit, often disability payments like SSDI. Regional differences in labor force participation (e.g., high inactivity in West Virginia adjacent to low inactivity in Maryland) mitigate a purely national demand-side case. The source stresses the lack of data on the estimated 25 million ex-convicts, who are an "invisible population" largely untracked by labor statistics.
1929

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