Is Total Portfolio Approach the next Portable Alpha—brilliant innovation or overhyped rebranding?Justina Lee, senior reporter at Bloomberg News covering global markets and quant strategies, joins the show to dissect the Total Portfolio Approach phenomenon sweeping through institutional investing. Fresh off covering CalPERS's historic shift from 11 asset class benchmarks to a single 75/25 reference portfolio, Justina reveals why TPA has become the industry's latest buzzword—and why finding critics willing to speak on the record proved surprisingly difficult. The conversation explores whether TPA represents genuine innovation or clever rebranding of existing SAA capabilities, with Justina noting that many allocators claiming to adopt TPA are actually implementing "way lighter versions" while service providers rush to pitch whatever they're selling as TPA-compatible. The discussion addresses critical implementation barriers, including challenges in factor analysis in private markets, the governance tension between board oversight and CIO discretion, and the uncomfortable question of accountability when asset class benchmarks disappear.
The episode expands beyond TPA to explore cutting-edge developments in quantitative investing, artificial intelligence,  and prediction markets. Justina discusses Numerai's unconventional crowdsourced hedge fund model, which recently raised $30 million at a $500 million valuation after outperforming traditional quant peers, and explains how founder Richard Craib's decade-long persistence with AI, crypto rewards, and global talent aggregation may finally be paying off. The conversation then shifts to prediction markets, where Justina reports that institutional players like Jump Trading are beginning to provide liquidity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, though serious institutional money remains largely on the sidelines due to ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Throughout, Justina and Angelo debate whether the industry's incremental improvements, like TPA, are sufficient or whether truly transformative solutions, like deep reinforcement learning, are needed to solve the fundamental portfolio optimization problem.Justina Lee is a London-based senior reporter at Bloomberg News covering cross-asset markets, with a particular focus on bonds, structured finance, cryptocurrencies, and quantitative strategies—and what she calls "weird asset classes" like prediction markets. She's been with Bloomberg for 12 years, starting her career covering Greater China markets from Taipei and Hong Kong before relocating to London, where she's reported on quantitative strategies and other nerdier financial topics for the past five years.
In This Episode: (00:00) Introduction to guest Justina Lee
(04:12) Why Total Portfolio Approach became investing's latest buzzword
(08:15) Governance tensions and the Portable Alpha comparison
(12:16) TPA hype, implementation barriers, and leadership challenges
(20:34) Deep reinforcement learning as the real optimization solution
(24:04) Numerai's crowdsourced hedge fund model disrupting quant investing
(28:41) Prediction markets gaining traction with institutional players
(31:30) Closing thoughts and worst journalistic pitches
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Dr. Angelo Calvello is a serial innovator and co-founder of multiple investment firms, including Rosetta Analytics and Blue Diamond Asset Management. He leverages his extensive professional network and reputation for authentic thought leadership to curate conversations with genuinely innovative allocators.
As the "Dissident" columnist for Institutional Investor and former "Doctor Is In" columnist for Chief Investment Officer (winner of the 2016 Jesse H. Neal Award), Calvello...
Chapters
(00:00:00) - The Different Types Of TPA(00:00:26) - The Institutional Edge: Total Portfolio Approach(00:02:14) - Interviewing Justina Flanagan(00:03:45) - Tpa: The Total Portfolio Approach(00:05:07) - Quantitative Portfolio Management: TPA(00:06:28) - TPA: Asset Managers' Views(00:11:57) - Getting Out There With TPA(00:12:49) - Have You Had Asset Owners Contact You After You Publish a Story(00:13:23) - Analysts: TPA Criticism(00:18:57) - TPA: Should Calpers Consider Deep Reinforcement Learning?(00:23:52) - Crowdsourcing Hedge Funds(00:28:33) - Prediction Markets: Institutional Interest(00:31:33) - The Worst Investment Pitch Ever Got(00:32:40) - P&I: AI & Prediction Markets

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