Show notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (Tue, Sept 30, 2025)FXDollar eases; euro and sterling firmer.Yen extends a three-day bid after a hawkish-leaning BoJ Summary of Opinions; USD/JPY dipped below its 200-DMA.RBA delivers a unanimous hold with a firmer tone on inflation risks; AUD supported.PBoC sets a stronger-than-expected fix, lending support to CNY.South Korea’s top security adviser says a U.S. dollar swap remains challenging.CommoditiesOil: Continues to slide on reports of increased OPEC+ supply and the expected restart of Iraq’s Ceyhan pipeline.Gold: Tagged another all-time high before profit-taking cooled gains.Metals: Copper rangebound; China reportedly bans all BHP iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute.Trade & TariffsWhite House signs a proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on softwood, timber and lumber imports from Oct 14; caps for EU/Japan wood products intended at 15%.New 25% tariffs on vanities and kitchen cabinets effective Oct 14; cabinet tariffs to 50% and certain upholstered furniture to 30% on Jan 1 unless deals are reached.EU Trade Commissioner says the EU and U.S. will “very soon” propose post-2026 steel safeguards using tariff-rate quotas to address overcapacity.GeopoliticsWashington shutdown talks show no breakthrough; major airlines warn a lapse could strain aviation and cause delays.Middle East: No certainty Hamas will accept a proposed deal despite backing from key Arab states.Russia-Ukraine: Putin vows Russia will prevail; Kyiv reports overnight missile and drone strikes and ongoing cross-border hits on energy infrastructure.What’s nextU.S. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings.Central-bank speakers: RBA’s Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone/Elderson, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Lombardelli/Mann/Breeden.

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