Show Notes — FX, Commodities & Geopolitics Briefing (Oct 2, 2025)Episode summary: The U.S. government shutdown narrows the data signal and weighs on sentiment. The dollar eases for a fifth straight session as the yen firms on cautious-hawkish BOJ guidance. Gold hovers near record highs, oil softens, and copper stays supported. In trade policy, Brussels moves toward a steep steel-tariff hike while Washington’s Asia travel planning stalls amid the shutdown. On geopolitics, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range strikes; the G7 leans further on trade measures to curb Russian revenue.Top takeawaysFX: DXY lower again; JPY leads after BOJ’s Uchida said rate hikes will continue if the outlook holds. EUR steady above 1.17; GBP modestly firmer; AUD/NZD inch higher with China still on holiday.Commodities: Oil gives back early gains on light newsflow; gold pauses just below fresh ATHs; copper extends above ~$10.5k/t; a major bank reiterates higher multi-year gold targets.Trade & tariffs: EU drafts a hike to ~50% steel import tariffs; U.S. shutdown slows planning for the President’s late-October Asia visit; Japan–U.S. date taking shape; South Korea–U.S. signal broader security alignment.Geopolitics: U.S. intel support to Ukraine for strikes inside Russia; G7 underscores tariffs and export bans to squeeze Russian revenues.Macro backdrop: S&P estimates the shutdown could shave 0.1–0.2pp off U.S. GDP per week, complicating near-term policy read-throughs.FXDollar softer for a fifth session as the shutdown trims the data calendar and raises headline sensitivity.USD/JPY dipped toward the mid-146s before rebounding around 147 after BOJ Uchida said the Bank would keep hiking if its outlook is realized.EUR/USD holds a tight 1.171–1.178 range on a light Eurozone docket; GBP/USD recovers above 1.35 with UK price-expectation surveys nudging higher.AUD/NZD firmer, though ranges remain contained with China’s on-shore markets closed for Golden Week.CommoditiesCrude oil slips back from early strength despite scant fresh catalysts; earlier geopolitical pop faded.Gold consolidates just below new records as policy uncertainty and a softer dollar sustain haven demand.Base metals: Copper extends gains above ~$10.5k/t despite China’s holiday lull; Kazakhstan signals crude output near 90mt in 2026.A major bank reiterates gold as highest-conviction long, flagging upside risks to 2026 targets.Trade & TariffsEU prepares to raise steel import tariffs to ~50% in a draft aligned with North American levels.Washington’s Asia travel logistics slow amid the shutdown; Japan–U.S. tentatively set Oct 27; Brazil–U.S. working toward a leaders’ meeting.South Korea–U.S. note broad security agreement; a BoK official says the fuller impact of U.S. tariffs on exports likely shows up next year.GeopoliticsUkraine: The U.S. will provide intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia and is urging NATO allies to offer similar support.G7 reaffirms the use of tariffs and export/import bans to limit Russian revenue streams.What to watch nextU.S. shutdown timeline and any workaround data proxies (e.g., private labor indicators).BOJ signaling into the October meeting and yen sensitivity to rate-differential headlines.EU steel tariff decision path and any reciprocal trade responses.Gold momentum near ATHs and copper resilience without China’s on-shore participation.

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