Private payrolls fell 33 k in June, the first drop in two years, jolting Fed-cut odds but leaving Treasury yields slightly higher on fiscal-debt worries. Equity bulls ignored the soft data: a U.S.–Vietnam tariff compromise propelled Nike and peers, pushing the S&P 500 (+0.47 %) and Nasdaq (+0.94 %) to fresh records while the Dow lagged. Today’s episode dissects the ADP shock, shifting rate expectations, cross-asset moves, and the policy twin risks of Trump’s $3.4 tn tax-and-spend bill and the July 9 tariff deadline. We close with what to watch as markets shut early at 1 p.m. ET and the June NFP lands a day early on Thursday.

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