The Trump Bear Trap | May Round Up

05/05/2025 40 min
The Trump Bear Trap | May Round Up

Listen "The Trump Bear Trap | May Round Up"

Episode Synopsis

The Trump Bear Trap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Factor Frustration

Markets whipsawed through April, with sudden drawdowns, massive rebounds, and political catalysts fueling confusion. In this episode of the Alpha Architect Roundup, we break down whether this is a true bear trap—or just the cost of being a long-term, evidence-based investor.

Key Topics Covered:

•Is this a bear trap or just market noise?
•The impact of Trump’s tariff threats and 90-day delays
•Why GDP shrank—and whether it means recession
•Crisis alpha and trend following: when should it work?
•Small-cap drawdowns and doubts about the size premium
•Do value and momentum still deserve investor trust?
•What it takes to stick with factor investing through pain

Timestamps:

00:00 –Intro/ Factor investing should be hard
01:27 – April volatility: bear trap or bull trap?
06:39 – "Kicking the can down the road"
12:29 – GDP contraction: signal or noise?
15:31 – Crisis alpha and trend disappointment
19:49 – Is the size premium dead?
21:40 – Factors and the problem of timing
27:04 – Are factors dead?
36:49 – Is technical analysis for n00bs?
40:12 – Final thoughts

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