After delivering her first Budget last autumn, which included the biggest tax rises in decades to fund a major boost to public services, Rachel Reeves said that she would not be coming back with more tax increases. Fast forward 12 months and she’s about to do just that given a deteriorating outlook for the public finances risk the fiscal rules being broken. So the task for the Chancellor at this Budget is to show that she is serious about meeting her rules, boosting growth, and relieving cost of living pressures. Delivering all three in one Budget is an unenviable task.
How has the UK’s economic outlook changed since March? To what extent is our economic future being shaped by present uncertainty, or past poor performance? How much tax and spend tightening might the Chancellor need to? And how can she raise more revenue in a way that does the least harm to economic growth and living standards?

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