This week in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting questions we got and things that we saw last week. Three big things you need to know: First, positioning trades within US equities tend to be fairly mixed during yield curve inversions (a topic of focus in our investor meetings even before the FOMC) but have a classic defensive bias. Second, an S&P 500 P/E of ~16x seems reasonable based on post-FOMC interest rate and inflation views and our analysis of the relationship between rates, inflation, and P/Es dating back to the 1970s. Third, the 3,500 level on the S&P 500 will be key to watch as it represents the point at which a median recession would be priced in and the S&P 500 P/E based on 2023E EPS would fall below average again, using our below-consensus EPS forecast of $212.

Ver todos los episodios