How did we transition from candles to kerosene? or kerosene to electricity? What and when were the conditions ripe for energy transitions of our past? and what lessons do they have for us in the 21st century as we make a transition from high carbon intensity fossil fuels to renewable energy..

In this podcast Chaitanya Kumar from Sussex University talks to Roger Fouquet from the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics.

The podcast was first broadcast on The Shift, a great new on-line platform for conversations on energy and climate

This is a short version of the transcript

Chaitanya Kumar:  What are the key patterns that you've seen emerge from your study of historical energy transitions?

Roger Fouquet  Under every single energy transition like biomass to coal, coal to oil or oil to gas etc, is a disaggregation of a number of sectors and services. Services like heating, lighting and every sector like transport, housing etc; each one of those needs to make a transition of its own. The technology needed for this transition potentially differs from each sector and service and the result of which is a very slow transition.

In energy transitions, technology or new energy sources that emerges and eventually becomes dominant always start as a niche product. There are a small group of consumers who are willing to pay a premium for the energy services attached to the new technology. Economies of scale subsequently improve the technology and drive down its cost, making it competitive with the incumbent energy technology/source. For instance, kerosene was used for lighting in the late 1800's largely by the poor population that couldn't afford gas lighting. But it never dropped cheap enough to compete with gas lighting.

C. What was the trigger for energy transitions and what parallel can we draw to the modern energy transition that we need?

R. First people used candles, gas lighting came in in early 1800's which involved the infrastructure of pipes and was originally available to the wealthier populations. 1860's introduced kerosene which was able to compete and was much cheaper to candles. Gas for the rich and oil for the poor was the way things were for decades till electricity came around. Electricity became a competitor for gas at which point gas companies became alert and started providing the poor population with gas to capture a greater market. Companies in this case invested in piping infrastructure and charged consumers later for gas. Electricity therefore was subdued by market forces and took over 6 decades to compete with gas lighting and in the 1930's we saw the explosion of electricity provided lighting.

C. What were the infrastructure support structures to make this transition happen?

R. It was very much led by industry and which we are partly anticipating today. But it is important to note that the state played the role as an observer and as a regulator for energy pricing etc. There are more lessons to draw from that regulation aspect than suggesting that Government's encouraged a certain technology or energy source.

C. What are the key differences between the modern day transition and past energy transitions?

R. We are currently concerned about environmental pollution and climate change. We are now looking at the public paying a premium for a public good i.e. improvement in environmental quality and climate stabilisation and there is a market failure here. Unlike previous transitions where people adopted new sources of energy for better energy services for private benefit as opposed to public good. Ultimately we are seeking Governments to create the incentives for a valuation of that environment quality and climate stabilisation through regulation and influence prices.

C. How do you factor the use of information in energy transitions?

R. I think information can be helpful. Make people more aware, smart technologies help improve efficiency but I suspect that will allo...

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