27. The Counterfactual Worker: Calculations in a But-For World

Of Significance
10/06/2025 41 min

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Episode Synopsis

So you missed the job/didn’t get the promotion/got fired – how should we think about what you lost out on? In this episode, Brent, Nathan, and Steve explore the calculation decisions and assumptions you have to make in order to assess what would have happened to someone if everything was different. They get into the limitations of modeling and the various sources of bad empirical thinking in but-for calculations.

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