On this December 5th episode, we examine a raft of data releases that together sketch a disquieting portrait of the US economy. The latest ADP report showed the economy losing 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, while the Challenger Job Cuts report registered more than 70,000 layoffs—only the third time since 2008 that November cuts have exceeded that threshold. The Beige Book echoed this deterioration, noting that firms have moved beyond hiring freezes and begun outright reductions in headcount, a trend reinforced by the ISM Manufacturing survey.Markets initially rallied on the release of September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report, encouraged by strong headline figures. Yet the underlying details told a more troubling story. Real PCE and real disposable personal income were essentially flat on the month, and both the headline and core PCE Price Index appear to be drifting upward. Notably, nondurable goods prices surged on both monthly and annual measures—potentially reflecting tariff-related pressures—raising doubts that these increases will prove temporary.Taken together, the data continue to form a mosaic consistent with a stagflationary backdrop: weakening activity, softening labor demand, and price pressures that are proving stubborn rather than transitory.

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