The AI boom is starting to look a lot like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s — with thousands of startups rushing to market, only for most to collapse under weak business models. In this week’s episode of Lykken on Lending, David Lykken and Pavan Agarwal break down MIT’s recent report predicting that 95% of AI startups will fail, the disappointing reality of ChatGPT-5, and what this means for mortgage lenders and fintech innovators. They dive into the critical difference between probabilistic AI (guesswork) and deterministic AI (traceable, auditable, and regulator-ready) — and why the companies that master determinism will drive the next wave of disruption in capital markets and lending.

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