Episode #352: Nicholas Coppel’s tenure as Australia’s ambassador to Myanmar (2015–2018) provides a unique lens on the country’s transition toward democracy, as well as the enduring challenges posed by military dominance. Serving during the historic 2015 elections, Coppel witnessed the National League for Democracy (NLD) rise to power under Aung San Suu Kyi. Yet despite the optimism surrounding the election, the military’s entrenched authority under the 2008 Constitution continued to hinder reform. Retaining control of key ministries and 25% of parliamentary seats, the military ensured an enduring imbalance of power, despite the civilian government’s best efforts. Coppel’s engagement was largely with the civilian government, as the military remained resistant to diplomacy. Australian programs like English language training for military officers aimed to bridge gaps, but he acknowledges their limited impact. Coppel’s reflections highlight how this lack of meaningful dialogue with the military constrained international efforts to anticipate or mitigate future conflicts, including during and after the 2021 coup. Coppel outlines the difficult balance the international community faces in responding to Myanmar’s post-coup environment. He notes that symbolic gestures like refusing to appoint ambassadors are clear signals of disapproval but do not exert meaningful pressure on the military regime. He warns that some well-intentioned actions, such as corporate withdrawals, have produced perverse outcomes—like increasing the military’s revenue share in sectors such as oil and gas—while simultaneously harming ordinary civilians, such as garment workers losing jobs. Rather than blanket disengagement, he encourages a more thoughtful approach: supporting efforts that sustain the people of Myanmar without empowering the military, including initiatives like exile media, telehealth, and distance education. Technology, according to Coppel, plays a dual role in Myanmar’s crisis. While it enables resistance through fundraising and information sharing, it also facilitates military surveillance and propaganda. Despite these challenges, he remains cautiously optimistic, believing that change will come from the resilience of Myanmar’s people. “I would encourage your listeners to remain engaged with Myanmar. I would hate to think that the country and our attention on it, and our interest in it is diminished because of the actions of a military general,” Coppel urges, emphasizing the importance of global support for the people of Myanmar.

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