All any FPL manager wants for Christmas is a captaincy haul—obviously. Oh, but will Santa come and realize this dream of ours? In this Christmas Eve episode of the FPL Fortress, we conduct a deep dive into decision-making methodology, mainly through the lens of the weekly captaincy decision. Are we all becoming part of the hive mind? Are we victims of groupthink, or even GUILTY OF groupthink? Or maybe, the vast majority of managers don’t possess the capacity to make decisions on any deeper level? How should we grapple with this rather futile-sounding conclusion? As is so often the case with the Fortress, we also sprinkle in some economics to help tackle the topic at hand—this time, it’s the idea of being risk-averse. Would you rather take $500,000 for certain, or have a 50% chance of getting $1,000,000 and a 50% chance of getting $0? In FPL lingo: would you rather get the relatively “safe” points from a Haaland in any given gameweek, or would you try to locate a mega-haul from a lesser-proven asset (the risk being they blank while Haaland doesn’t)? On a more grounded level, we also consider the idea of parting ways with Salah or Son while they’re away at AFCON and the Asian Cup respectively, and what to do with the extra funds if one does decide to redistribute. Above all, we beseech you: think.

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