Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, December 23, 2025 — Geographic Feature: Texas. Quick note — our team is out of the office for the holidays, so we're doing geographic features this week. Regular programming returns Monday, December 29th. Today: Texas — the heartbeat of American energy. **THE NUMBERS** Texas accounts for over 42% of US crude oil production and nearly 30% of US marketed natural gas. The state is on pace for $220 billion in energy exports in 2025. **THE PERMIAN BASIN** Crude output projected to increase 430,000 barrels per day to reach 6.6 million bpd in 2025. Natural gas production at 25.8 billion cubic feet per day. This growth comes from longer lateral drilling, optimized well spacing, and enhanced hydraulic fracturing. The Matterhorn Express Pipeline expanding takeaway capacity. But the EIA projects Permian production may plateau by 2026 due to infrastructure limitations and capital discipline. **THE ERCOT STORY** ERCOT predicts Texas energy demand could nearly double by 2030 — AI, data centers, crypto mining, population growth. Battery storage and solar farms driving capacity growth. Texas created almost twice as much new solar as California in 2025. Solar expected to surpass coal-fired generation on an annual basis. **MARKET SENTIMENT** Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows executives expect WTI at $62 by end of 2026. But the average price used for 2026 capital planning is just $59 — down from $68 in 2025 budgets. Caution among shale producers. Lingering pessimism and uncertainty. **WHY TEXAS MATTERS FOR CAPITAL** If you're looking at energy infrastructure, midstream, renewables, or upstream opportunities — Texas remains the epicenter. We connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday: Geographic Feature — Australia.

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