This paper authored by Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf of the ECB, this paper analyzes the impact of a Bitcoin-positive scenario in which its price continues to rise in the foreseeable future. The authors critique the idea of Bitcoin as a viable means of payment, arguing that it has instead become an investment asset with a valuation driven by speculative beliefs. They argue that the continuous increase in Bitcoin's value, despite its lack of economic utility, results in a wealth transfer from non-holders to early adopters, creating a significant social and economic disparity. The sources further explore the macroeconomic effects of Bitcoin's price exuberance, considering the potential impact on inflation and the role of central bank policies. Finally, the authors analyze the political implications of Bitcoin, noting the growing influence of crypto lobbying and the potential for Bitcoin-related policies to influence electoral outcomes.

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