From the book "Stumbling on Happiness " by Daniel Gilbert. The thematic content focuses heavily on human psychology and the systematic errors people make when predicting their future emotional states, a phenomenon often referred to as affective forecasting. The author explores how our brains "next" (predict the immediate future), the role of the frontal lobe in planning and anxiety, and the ambiguity of "happiness" which is broken down into emotional, moral, and judgmental types. Further discussion covers cognitive biases like realism, presentism, and the inability to consider absences, and introduces the "psychological immune system" that helps people achieve positive views of inescapable or intense negative events, suggesting that relying on the experiences of others (surrogation) is often a better predictor of future feelings than our own imagination.

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