Positioning in Core Bonds and Emerging Markets

09/08/2025 18 min Episodio 22
Positioning in Core Bonds and Emerging Markets

Listen "Positioning in Core Bonds and Emerging Markets"

Episode Synopsis

Topics Covered:Portfolio construction in today’s macro climate — balancing risk, correlations, and tracking error.Credit market health — Morningstar DBRS and Proskauer data show improving leverage, coverage, and default rates.Bond market reset — Deutsche Bank’s historical context on the worst 5-year Treasury returns and forward expectations.Opportunities in core bonds — PIMCO’s view on yields, international duration, and diversification benefits.DeepMacro model positioning — long USD, contrarian equity overweight, and rates strategy.Trend-following under pressure — why CTAs are lagging in 2025.Emerging markets strategy — Victor Zhou on activeness, tracking error, and the under-researched alpha potential in EM small caps.Key Takeaways:Dollar correlations are a driver of our U.S. equity overweight.Credit fundamentals are stronger, with default rates falling.Bond valuations have reset, creating better entry points, but real returns may remain modest.Trend-following struggles highlight the need for multi-strategy systematic approaches.In emerging markets, higher activeness and small-cap allocations improve alpha opportunities.References:Morningstar DBRSProskauer Private Credit Default ReportDeutsche Bank Global Markets ResearchPIMCO Fixed Income OutlookDeepMacro Model PositioningState Street Emerging Markets Strategy Research