This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market.In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta exports rising 13.4 percent year to date, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025–2026 season is forecasted to increase by 6 percent, potentially reaching a 10 percent gain with favorable weather, which could ease global supply constraints and further moderate prices.In the United States, tariff policy continues to shape market dynamics. While a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on various commodities has been lifted, the 40 percent national security tariff on Brazilian coffee remains in place, restricting imports and influencing futures pricing. A change in this policy could significantly alter trade flows.Colombia, by contrast, has benefited from recent tariff changes. The removal of reciprocal tariffs on Colombian coffee has boosted its competitive edge, supporting a three-decade high in output at 14.8 million bags, up 17 percent year over year. This has strengthened Colombia's market share in the United States and globally.Despite current inventory tightness, the global coffee market is expected to stabilize. A 2.5 percent rise in overall production for the 2025–2026 season, alongside increasing stock levels, may counterbalance short-term supply limitations and help moderate speculative price volatility.

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