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Listen "Thanksgiving NFL Betting Breakdown: Chiefs vs Cowboys, Ravens vs Bengals & Navy Football Picks with Live Odds Analysis | Coach and Company | November 27, 2025"
Episode Synopsis
Full Podcast Summary/Notes (Timestamped)
Opening & Network Coverage Discussion (0:00 - 2:30)
Discussion of Thanksgiving Day game broadcast schedule
Fox covering first game, CBS second game, NBC third game
Setting up the day's betting analysis framework
George Pickens Receiving Yards Analysis (2:30 - 8:45)
Current Line Movement: Pickens receiving yards moved from 75.5 to 76.5 at BetMGM
Historical Context: Weeks 8-9 his number was only 56.5 yards
Value Assessment: Host expresses concern about inflated lines despite previous success
Player Comparison: Argues Pickens is better than CeeDee Lamb - faster, stronger, fewer drops
Betting Strategy: Hesitant to bet 76.5 when it was 56.5 just a month ago
Market Analysis: Notes how sportsbooks "suck the value out" after bettors find success
Chiefs vs Cowboys Game Breakdown (8:45 - 18:20)
Defensive Issues Analysis
Both teams struggle with third down defense
Host mentions "nightmares about third and eight" situations
Chiefs allowing points due to defensive breakdowns
Key Player Props & Betting Picks
Patrick Mahomes: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+money at BetMGM)
Travis Kelce: Over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Normal line is 4.5, moved to 5.5 for this game
Host admits losing this bet multiple times this season
Comments on Kelce's off-field distractions affecting performance
Isaiah Pacheco Return Impact
Running back returning from injury
Expected to help with third down conversion issues
Could impact offensive game flow
Game Total Discussion
Current total around 51.5 points
Host prefers rooting for points rather than spreads
Acknowledges Chiefs haven't been playing well despite record
Expects slow, methodical game with long possessions
Ravens vs Bengals Night Game Analysis (18:20 - 25:10)
Game Script Prediction
Expects Ravens to jump out to early lead (17-0 or 21-0)
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase accustomed to playing from behind
Predicts "old school Ravens" defensive performance
Betting Strategy
Ja'Marr Chase: Recommends over props
Joe Burrow: Suggests staying away due to potential slow start
Game Total: Needs 28-24 type score to hit over
Host confident this will be an exciting, high-scoring affair
Navy Football Analysis (25:10 - End)
Recent Performance Trends
Navy: 5 of last 6 games have gone over the total
Recent scores: 79, 59, 72, 63, 65 points
Scored 41 against South Florida last week
Memphis: 3 of last 4 games hit over
Recent totals: 58, 60, 65 points
Both teams showing offensive consistency
Betting Rationale
Host avoided spread betting in favor of total
Navy described as "willing dance partner" for high-scoring games
Both teams expected to be prepared and motivated
Overall Betting Philosophy & Market Commentary
Emphasis on line movement and value identification
Discussion of how sportsbooks adjust after successful betting patterns
Importance of historical context when evaluating current lines
Focus on game flow and situational advantages
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Opening & Network Coverage Discussion (0:00 - 2:30)
Discussion of Thanksgiving Day game broadcast schedule
Fox covering first game, CBS second game, NBC third game
Setting up the day's betting analysis framework
George Pickens Receiving Yards Analysis (2:30 - 8:45)
Current Line Movement: Pickens receiving yards moved from 75.5 to 76.5 at BetMGM
Historical Context: Weeks 8-9 his number was only 56.5 yards
Value Assessment: Host expresses concern about inflated lines despite previous success
Player Comparison: Argues Pickens is better than CeeDee Lamb - faster, stronger, fewer drops
Betting Strategy: Hesitant to bet 76.5 when it was 56.5 just a month ago
Market Analysis: Notes how sportsbooks "suck the value out" after bettors find success
Chiefs vs Cowboys Game Breakdown (8:45 - 18:20)
Defensive Issues Analysis
Both teams struggle with third down defense
Host mentions "nightmares about third and eight" situations
Chiefs allowing points due to defensive breakdowns
Key Player Props & Betting Picks
Patrick Mahomes: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+money at BetMGM)
Travis Kelce: Over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Normal line is 4.5, moved to 5.5 for this game
Host admits losing this bet multiple times this season
Comments on Kelce's off-field distractions affecting performance
Isaiah Pacheco Return Impact
Running back returning from injury
Expected to help with third down conversion issues
Could impact offensive game flow
Game Total Discussion
Current total around 51.5 points
Host prefers rooting for points rather than spreads
Acknowledges Chiefs haven't been playing well despite record
Expects slow, methodical game with long possessions
Ravens vs Bengals Night Game Analysis (18:20 - 25:10)
Game Script Prediction
Expects Ravens to jump out to early lead (17-0 or 21-0)
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase accustomed to playing from behind
Predicts "old school Ravens" defensive performance
Betting Strategy
Ja'Marr Chase: Recommends over props
Joe Burrow: Suggests staying away due to potential slow start
Game Total: Needs 28-24 type score to hit over
Host confident this will be an exciting, high-scoring affair
Navy Football Analysis (25:10 - End)
Recent Performance Trends
Navy: 5 of last 6 games have gone over the total
Recent scores: 79, 59, 72, 63, 65 points
Scored 41 against South Florida last week
Memphis: 3 of last 4 games hit over
Recent totals: 58, 60, 65 points
Both teams showing offensive consistency
Betting Rationale
Host avoided spread betting in favor of total
Navy described as "willing dance partner" for high-scoring games
Both teams expected to be prepared and motivated
Overall Betting Philosophy & Market Commentary
Emphasis on line movement and value identification
Discussion of how sportsbooks adjust after successful betting patterns
Importance of historical context when evaluating current lines
Focus on game flow and situational advantages
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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